Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b7066048b8ebcd15db1075a340b5ee55e25098caa09b9b397d0938d34c6f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $224,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 11,026$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed No | 0c | 7,816$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…718abacked No | 1c | 7,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 2c | 5,952$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…4b56backed No | 0c | 5,411$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 3c | 4,504$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,650$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…3e93backed No | 1c | 3,609$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 25cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed No | 2c | 2,367$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…3168backed No | 3c | 1,986$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c3…7336backed No | 3c | 1,852$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…b5febacked No | 3c | 1,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 8c | 1,628$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked No | 3c | 1,283$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 10c | 1,272$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 3cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 51c | 850$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…d7dcbacked No | 1c | 841.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 3cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…aaccbacked No | 3c | 750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ff…9f4abacked No | 3c | 744.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…1cbebacked No | 3c | 520.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 50c | 480$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 3c | 432.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…44c4backed No | 3c | 386.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…b621backed No | 3c | 359.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7528…0b8fbacked No | 4c | 310.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +843.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 9c | 211$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 184$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked No | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 169.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7479backed No | 19c | 100.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…c108backed No | 15c | 71.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9d…5d14backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.