Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb888edac5702ca99bddff852c2cdfd5f0b7e2ef95e53da913c8801714b253c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 44c | 2,667$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.23 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 50c | 2,500$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.95 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 1,600$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 20c | 1,519$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.38 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 35c | 1,098$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.16 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 59c | 811.77$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.05 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x980b…abfabacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 26c | 694.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 47c | 611.8$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…799ebacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4438backed Yes | 45c | 452.14$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 11c | 403.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…d526backed Yes | 57c | 368.79$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 17c | 279.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 216.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6e…d923backed Yes | 52c | 216.25$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…8246backed Yes | 52c | 181.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…1d12backed Yes | 55c | 180.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 36c | 161.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4260…5e65backed Yes | 54c | 154.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 27c | 148.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 42c | 128.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 34c | 110.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked Yes | 46c | 108.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 35c | 107.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…a36dbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.38per pick | 35cpaid | +271.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…a639backed Yes | 53c | 98.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 28c | 95.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 56c | 77.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…c15bbacked Yes | 54c | 70.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 57c | 70.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed Yes | 80c | 60.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b6…6b22backed No | 59c | 46.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…1c3cbacked Yes | 54c | 44.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 70c | 40.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…a9fcbacked Yes | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 31.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 37c | 30.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 65c | 23.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…d80dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…4540backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…7e03backed Yes | 61c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.