Us Politics · resolved market
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe0b4a16a40393532a5a128e1238d0acf5d58b2d2688c4a2ec1b3aa4cdfc912
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 0c | 3,353$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3958…82e3backed Yes | 54c | 2,216$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed Yes | 67c | 1,784$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 41c | 1,767$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.29 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed No | 49c | 1,449$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 33c | 1,350$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.99 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,123$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 57c | 1,094$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 33c | 919$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 33c | 865$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 43c | 861$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 43c | 846$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…e196backed Yes | 52c | 806.5$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 43c | 781$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 3c | 765.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +402.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 23c | 695.02$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.17 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 42c | 584.02$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.29 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 75c | 577.54$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked Yes | 18c | 574$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 65c | 529.79$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +157%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 68c | 506.65$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 77c | 489.66$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.17 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…d969backed No | 29c | 488.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 30c | 460.38$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed Yes | 58c | 414.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 411.4$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 74c | 405$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 18c | 372$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b6…8f2bbacked Yes | 54c | 366.11$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…4dcebacked Yes | 60c | 350.43$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Yes | 35c | 337.14$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e5…008cbacked Yes | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 69c | 288.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 286.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.92 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 72c | 275.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 57c | 271$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…5acfbacked Yes | 19c | 241$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 230.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.43 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…b27cbacked Yes | 67c | 160.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 64c | 155.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 47c | 123.65$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed Yes | 78c | 117$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed Yes | 10c | 107.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 11c | 101.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17bb…3621backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…7976backed Yes | 69c | 97.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 31c | 95.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…c7e9backed Yes | 15c | 85.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +266%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 64c | 83.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…3358backed Yes | 64c | 78.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137d…8358backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 76c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…c96ebacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…93aebacked No | 38c | 52.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 51.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 67c | 50.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7117…2427backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ed…5f7ebacked Yes | 40c | 48.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 39c | 43.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…ada9backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 42.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…d8cabacked Yes | 75c | 36.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…ee57backed Yes | 63c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…4244backed Yes | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…ca9cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267b…290abacked Yes | 69c | 24.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2098…c8aebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…effebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 78c | 18.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fa…78b8backed Yes | 66c | 16.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 16.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…f9f3backed Yes | 67c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?this page
- Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
- Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.