Us Politics · resolved market

Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf86733814c1576c4c410bea98e649eea535f14d574fbc92d09059dcb70fb8b7c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $321,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x529f…ffd4backed No	0c	35,200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.1	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed No	32c	24,691$7,973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,972.87	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x745e…ebc8backed No	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes	63c	13,971$8,734 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,236.87	176	33%58 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	58c	12,907$7,484 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,423.43	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No	9c	12,850$1,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096.87	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6956…d189backed Yes	61c	10,909$6,679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,230.22	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa659…1eaabacked No	38c	8,307$3,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,145.93	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	64cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No	5c	7,346$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.98	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No	5c	7,289$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.1	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No	0c	6,750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	132	16.7%22 W · 110 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2822…3f0cbacked No	2c	6,418$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.02	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No	0c	5,600$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No	4c	4,969$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.29	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8d…b8f8backed No	6c	4,800$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.63	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes	77c	4,475$3,444 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,030.65	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No	36c	4,457$1,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,594.76	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed No	3c	4,032$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No	40c	3,867$1,537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,537.37	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.5wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No	10c	3,462$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.86	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No	4c	3,225$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.01	134	3.7%5 W · 129 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c7…3e93backed No	16c	3,050$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.51	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+3.2wins	+0.29per pick	25cpaid	+153.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No	18c	3,034$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.28	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	27cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No	14c	2,850$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.03	47	17%8 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed No	41c	2,500$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes	80c	2,478$1,977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.12	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+3.0wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	58c	2,000$1,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	+5.2wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Yes	58c	1,957$1,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.75	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd814…7f65backed No	36c	1,928$687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.38	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-41%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No	4c	1,616$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.01	41	4.9%2 W · 39 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No	25c	1,537$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.06	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked No	4c	1,502$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.36	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+49%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No	9c	1,432$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.16	39	20.5%8 W · 31 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+87%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd553…6af5backed No	38c	1,299$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No	40c	1,209$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.45	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc76…bfd6backed No	3c	1,159$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked No	27c	1,142$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.36	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+58.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No	9c	1,099$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.55	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	18cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes	58c	999$579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.58	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No	4c	963.36$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	76	5.3%4 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0778…1276backed Yes	58c	917.57$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.1	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.25per pick	61cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No	6c	901.1$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.71	78	7.7%6 W · 72 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes	74c	900$666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	-8.0wins	-0.24per pick	52cpaid	-61%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xbdab…137ebacked No	6c	888.69$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked Yes	73c	823.98$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.92	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.23per pick	41cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes	60c	811.99$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.8	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	22c	765.27$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.05	441	11.3%50 W · 391 L	-44.5wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No	6c	752.58$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.15	126	31.7%40 W · 86 L	-8.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No	43c	750$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.5	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No	3c	709.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.43	61	0%0 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked No	5c	699.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.2	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	3cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xced2…1076backed No	19c	680$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.65	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No	44c	630$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.2	556	18.5%103 W · 453 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…aca8backed No	4c	629.68$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	5c	615.18$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.08	94	3.2%3 W · 91 L	-8.3wins	-0.09per pick	12cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No	37c	605$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.85	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	58c	600$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked Yes	79c	597.88$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.55	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	-13.0wins	-0.28per pick	55cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	17c	588.27$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.17	149	35.6%53 W · 96 L	+6.3wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	5c	563.52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e01…2c8abacked No	12c	550$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.3	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72a8…c016backed Yes	76c	538.39$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.35	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes	57c	523$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.33	139	43.2%60 W · 79 L	+7.8wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfad4…aa87backed No	3c	489.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No	6c	479.76$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed No	18c	471.45$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.85	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+95.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f3…baa8backed No	29c	451$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.48	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.6wins	-0.29per pick	40cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7981…eb51backed No	5c	448.62$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No	39c	446$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.94	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes	78c	439.98$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.54	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No	42c	399.99$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	80	42.5%34 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42a…cb8ebacked No	41c	376.74$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc932…7277backed Yes	60c	357.85$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.72	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked No	41c	355.84$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.69	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6b0…e15dbacked No	3c	352.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	80c	328.72$262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.27	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b90…4ebabacked No	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	66c	295.5$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.47	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	41cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No	8c	294.22$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.48	57	10.5%6 W · 51 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4683…a639backed Yes	60c	279$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.83	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+142.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b4e…c895backed Yes	60c	251.4$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+76.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked No	5c	249.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes	79c	247.84$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.96	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed No	43c	240$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.37	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked No	42c	238.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa66b…20c1backed No	45c	223.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked No	39c	223.52$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.17	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked No	42c	203.06$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.32	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.23per pick	37cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes	73c	201$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.27	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf87b…76bbbacked No	41c	200$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd940…8d04backed No	42c	200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0284…f12ebacked No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes	57c	200$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ca…9a86backed No	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed No	40c	199.98$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed Yes	62c	198.63$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.67	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	+59.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes	73c	197.3$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.27	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No	18c	190.07$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.21	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+117.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fee…ef0bbacked No	11c	188.62$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?this page
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 100 days or more?No won
Will the DHS shutdown last 110 days or more?No won
Will the DHS shutdown last 120 days or more?No won
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 3 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 40 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 5 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 7 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?Yes won
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?No won
Will the DHS shutdown last 90 days or more?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event