TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5deb…ccdd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,191
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT72147.3%341 W · 380 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 721 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ITF M25 Taipei Men: Taisei Ichikawa vs Tung-lin Wubacked Taisei Ichikawa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.38
ITF M25 Taipei Men: Shinji Hazawa vs Masamichi Imamurabacked Shinji Hazawa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.39
ITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Yunseong Chung vs Chase Fergusonbacked Yunseong Chung · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$69.53
ITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Fanming Meng vs Sam Ryan Ziegannbacked Fanming Meng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$8.04
ITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Xin Zhou vs Ammar Alhogbanibacked Xin Zhou · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.99
Cancun: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Francisco Comesanabacked Pablo Llamas Ruiz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+62.2%+$227.85
ITF W15 Tianjin 3 Women: Ru Xi Wu vs Maiko Uchijimabacked Ru Xi Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$82.65
ITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Joshua Charlton vs Yusuke Takahashibacked Joshua Charlton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.62
ITF W15 Tianjin 3 Women: Onyu Choi vs Aunchisa Chantabacked Onyu Choi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.51
Cancun: Gauthier Onclin vs Alejandro Moro Canasbacked Alejandro Moro Canas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.49
Cincinnati Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Iva Jovicbacked Marie Bouzkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+57.4%+$145.9
Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$106.29
Quebec City: Benjamin Bonzi vs Justin Boulaisbacked Justin Boulais · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.54
Cancun: Lloyd Harris vs Laslo Djerebacked Lloyd Harris · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$46.35
Cancun: Dalibor Svrcina vs Stan Wawrinkabacked Dalibor Svrcina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Kingston: Joel Schwaerzler vs Kenta Miyoshibacked Kenta Miyoshi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$140.46
Quebec City: Francesco Maestrelli vs Alexei Popyrinbacked Alexei Popyrin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
Cancun: Dali Blanch vs Felipe Meligeni Alvesbacked Felipe Meligeni Alves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$18.15
Kingston: Lucas Da Silva vs Tyler Zinkbacked Tyler Zink · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$41.42
Cincinnati Open: Jaime Faria vs Adam Waltonbacked Adam Walton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.46
Cincinnati Open: Sara Bejlek vs Ekaterina Alexandrovabacked Ekaterina Alexandrova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.44
Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Dane Sweenybacked Jesper de Jong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$23.53
Cancun: Roman Safiullin vs Sebastian Ofnerbacked Roman Safiullin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$21.15
Kingston: Benjamin Willwerth vs Gonzalo Buenobacked Benjamin Willwerth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.43
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Brandon Nakashima · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+76.4%+$36.6
Showing 25 of 721 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT35034.3%120 W · 230 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 350 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,459Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+132.2%+$1,928.68
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,256Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+86.1%+$2,803.06
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+69.2%+$205.71
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$829Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+60.8%+$503.46
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,673Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,672.51
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$8,908Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,908.05
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,958Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,958.47
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,315.32
England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,148.71
Spain leading at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.22
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$9,345Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$5,149.62
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$8,980Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4,029.3
France vs. Spain: Draw at halftime?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$124.53
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13,587Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$4,337.11
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,513Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+27%+$408.95
France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+60.1%+$318.26
France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.5
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,423Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+77.8%+$3,442.38
Argentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$419Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$175.63
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.63
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$513.34
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.68
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,357Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+69.4%+$941.93
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$7,298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,298.16
Norway vs. England: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$758Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+173.1%+$1,311.4
Showing 25 of 350 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT2630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$116.98
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.5
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+25%+$105.07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$390.71
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$156
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.05
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+155.1%+$76.6
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.6
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$340
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$101.81
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.02
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$390
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of March 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$476Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$175.97
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+37%+$81
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+125.2%+$229.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$460
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.21
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$340
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$147.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.87
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.3
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.73
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+141%+$234
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.77
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.4
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$162
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.28
All 23 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.38
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+297%+$125.09
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$73.84
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+525%+$840
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.05
Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.72
Will SpaceX raise between $50B and $60B in its IPO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.95
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$240
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.43
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+217%+$759.58
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$314.91
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.21
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$53.62
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.97
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+60%+$75.01
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$120
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.58
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.25
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$217.97
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+102.9%+$121.84
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.91
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$92.41
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$61
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Lotte Giantsbacked Lotte Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$10.87
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kiwoom Heroesbacked Kiwoom Heroes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+112.1%+$18.89
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigersbacked Lotte Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.28
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Shanghai Sharksbacked Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Ningbo Rockets vs. Beijing Royal Fightersbacked Beijing Royal Fighters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.75
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopardsbacked Guangzhou Loong Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.32
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$670
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$830
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$115
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$30.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$17.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-04-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.