Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9803b5c96b70dd45266e2a8ece5f8a1f4eed4d8a6ef9e6d470af8f29f24af7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked Yes | 10c | 1,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…9a8cbacked Yes | 4c | 822.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 34c | 782.8$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 774.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 45c | 580.17$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.21 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 43c | 579.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 56c | 558.17$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.3 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 27c | 535.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 6c | 514.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…d9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 461.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 13c | 361.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 23c | 349.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…e6cabacked Yes | 15c | 311.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 9c | 289.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…94b8backed Yes | 14c | 286.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 68c | 281.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…039fbacked Yes | 21c | 280.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756a…3d85backed Yes | 14c | 268.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 69c | 246.63$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 28c | 230.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 70c | 228.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…e070backed Yes | 45c | 220.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 70c | 210.17$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…6b6abacked Yes | 49c | 204.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed Yes | 49c | 204.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 19c | 197.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…27b6backed Yes | 46c | 195.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked No | 57c | 182.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 73c | 177.21$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188f…80b2backed No | 60c | 166.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 161.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 161.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 71c | 147.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3e…c5dbbacked Yes | 43c | 145.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…421abacked No | 57c | 145.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 64c | 138.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 38c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 125.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 42c | 107.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 47c | 99.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 94.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked No | 63c | 69.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 60c | 66.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 60.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…999fbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 57c | 53.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 45c | 52.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 24c | 51.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 50.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 115 | 61.7%71 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…c0b8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 75c | 45.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…1bf7backed No | 68c | 44.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 26c | 40.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…694bbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 40c | 33.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…7cffbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…24ddbacked No | 51c | 31.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0256…c3ebbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 65c | 24.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…cf39backed No | 60c | 23.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 23.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.