Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf859b7212392177049d6da8fe08f6a925028188387445136094b593750bc4da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 0c | 9,345$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,905$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…9a74backed Yes | 3c | 2,967$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,599$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ff…d779backed Yes | 2c | 1,386$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,327$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1205…3134backed Yes | 7c | 1,153$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 4c | 1,129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,077$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…178dbacked Yes | 3c | 888.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 26c | 799.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 708.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 9c | 616.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes | 52c | 576.93$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 528.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…97bdbacked Yes | 2c | 526.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 55c | 486.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.03 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 42c | 483.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.52 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 11c | 405.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 76c | 343.14$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed Yes | 60c | 335.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc038…2c07backed Yes | 5c | 322.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…7f4bbacked Yes | 5c | 293.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 278.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 65c | 268.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…0a38backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 41c | 249.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 62c | 241.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +11.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes | 44c | 240.53$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a9…d0a9backed Yes | 63c | 207.62$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139f…2bbbbacked Yes | 63c | 176.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 46c | 157.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 40c | 147.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.74 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 144.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 56c | 143.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…1dbdbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 15c | 138.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 137.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…89bfbacked No | 44c | 137.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 17c | 136.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d5…1300backed No | 73c | 136.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 127$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…8ec3backed No | 80c | 119.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 61c | 118.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525f…b707backed Yes | 15c | 100.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b8…0cc2backed Yes | 58c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed Yes | 49c | 93.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 20c | 89.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 20c | 79.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 43c | 78.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes | 41c | 72.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…cfd0backed Yes | 62c | 67.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 55c | 66.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 65c | 61.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf4…866abacked No | 67c | 59.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…3721backed No | 49c | 51.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 63c | 49.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…6935backed Yes | 62c | 48.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5612…10b0backed Yes | 63c | 47.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…3d98backed No | 74c | 46.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 41c | 37.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…f180backed Yes | 62c | 36.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…6390backed Yes | 57c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 52c | 33.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 68c | 33.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…1167backed Yes | 61c | 32.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…7302backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked No | 52c | 28.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…640bbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed No | 68c | 22.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 57c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…3994backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff8a…b400backed Yes | 57c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…a7a5backed No | 80c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.