TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$210,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$189,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes1c17,043$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.743630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes1c7,030$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8715434.4%53 W · 101 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0d…7ec8backed Yes6c6,136$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes5c5,002$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2517740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes1c4,987$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9613544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,757$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.681,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3d…ecfebacked Yes1c3,553$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.771526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked Yes1c3,495$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…04cabacked Yes1c3,307$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,501$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.187135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c2,366$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9342311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes9c2,222$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.255913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes15c2,219$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3278833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,932$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.645071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad8…f124backed Yes1c1,711$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed Yes5c1,710$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.698744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes3c1,708$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.291657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd13e…356cbacked Yes3c1,677$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e51…ade8backed Yes4c1,673$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes44c1,628$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7203234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes6c1,617$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a81…a925backed Yes24c1,584$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick21cpaid-93.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes2c1,573$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc99a…49abbacked Yes1c1,563$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+379.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7c7…999cbacked Yes1c1,501$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes3c1,462$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7416041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c1,371$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7312918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1161…b305backed Yes1c1,363$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.63475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+135.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,319$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.434195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5da3…8440backed Yes3c1,257$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.291457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5695…1247backed Yes5c1,255$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.37230%0 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8788…d4b6backed Yes2c1,100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.783218.8%6 W · 26 L-5.3wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-68.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d8c…cf02backed Yes5c1,022$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10280%0 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes2c1,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes4c994.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.075238.5%20 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes6c928.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.372036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2880…d888backed Yes6c928$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed No32c869$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No32c837$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.161526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed Yes2c801.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.677350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e52…c81bbacked Yes7c785.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd131…9422backed Yes3c758.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes10c703.76$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes4c700$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.612330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes2c700$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.416111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes2c699.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc876…8711backed Yes2c687.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes5c655$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No62c650$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.052352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes4c610.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9718833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes68c596$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.281250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes8c577.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes68c567$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.562035%7 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes41c556.82$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2299436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked No77c556$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.882045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes23c556$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.881050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes68c543$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.242236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes4c529.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6624712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed Yes5c500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes61c486.11$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes13c463.15$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae4…b563backed No78c460.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56bf…5c19backed Yes11c456.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2f1…d3f2backed Yes62c422.23$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.62250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes7c421.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No50c398.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5815629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1c…9a74backed Yes14c388.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.791020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes21c371.1$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0518531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1151…c9abbacked No35c361.41$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.291723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes3c350.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2120131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes15c339.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.013650%18 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6749…ef34backed No63c315.22$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f4…a1cfbacked Yes3c306.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid+127.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6c…0ec0backed Yes16c303.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-78.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes67c300.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.517929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x272f…164fbacked Yes17c292.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+279.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a1…d6bebacked Yes4c282.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.951625%4 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes17c268.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes8c268.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6131728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes63c262$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.063964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked Yes12c251.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked Yes18c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.141915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x883e…e070backed Yes48c244.79$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.361050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No26c237.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.786445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f08…0adebacked Yes57c208.21$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.87520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes7c207.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5429254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe35f…f7f8backed Yes10c201.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4413138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d4…d6cfbacked Yes26c166.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.854436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes13c155.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.111910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52544%11 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a44…5e33backed No54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695360.4%32 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed No35c147.31$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.324740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d71…5f91backed Yes7c135.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes11c134.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0512616.7%21 W · 105 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5867…355abacked Yes78c128.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.