Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fab501b46c3c49de89c890dd9c9020fb4cc93a6e389f0e0f9baf549a2c2dbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 4,647$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.36 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 72c | 2,402$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.21 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed Yes | 75c | 2,142$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 25c | 1,431$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 31c | 1,343$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.3 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,195$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed No | 2c | 1,175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 12c | 1,100$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19a8…b852backed No | 1c | 1,079$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 4c | 1,078$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 12c | 955.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 26c | 914.11$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.33 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 897.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 3c | 820.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7620…8fe3backed No | 14c | 728.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 18c | 700$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 13c | 666.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed No | 2c | 660$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…039fbacked Yes | 21c | 565.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…9e0fbacked No | 8c | 538.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d63…186ebacked No | 19c | 536.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…8cc2backed No | 50c | 482.19$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…14a7backed No | 2c | 476.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…5c07backed No | 74c | 468.84$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 35c | 443.13$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.81 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 18c | 430.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 23c | 412.26$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.21 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 8c | 409.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…9eeebacked No | 25c | 407.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 72c | 394.31$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 6c | 386.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe034…5f9ebacked No | 23c | 378.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed No | 25c | 360.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed No | 9c | 359.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed Yes | 80c | 345.06$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 45c | 336.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 9c | 329.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 325$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 323.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 23c | 305.07$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 5c | 304.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 300.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 21c | 298.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 287.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 12c | 282.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 18c | 281.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 29c | 275$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…2d23backed No | 11c | 273.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…7aa8backed No | 27c | 265.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Yes | 69c | 253.7$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes | 23c | 212.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 205.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 26c | 201.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 72c | 198.7$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 200 | 35.5%71 W · 129 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 23c | 169.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 155.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 20c | 153.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…5633backed No | 33c | 151.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 14c | 139.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e8…3664backed No | 13c | 135.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…6518backed No | 10c | 135.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed No | 18c | 134.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 19c | 131.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed No | 9c | 128.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 28c | 122.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed No | 14c | 110.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ce96backed No | 9c | 106.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked No | 24c | 103.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed No | 15c | 102.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…4c58backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b8…0cc2backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed Yes | 34c | 97.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…a9c6backed No | 60c | 89.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 24c | 85.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 71.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 22c | 69.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 53c | 67.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…b244backed No | 51c | 58.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 76c | 56.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 39c | 54.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 37c | 53.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b8…4af7backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 39c | 48.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…c882backed Yes | 79c | 47.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…3195backed Yes | 64c | 46.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 50c | 45.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…16d5backed No | 46c | 43.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.