Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df639de7fe23e3e49ad9c5d193b5387975d0440ec51b065a3b38dd3f24ec336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb274…14eebacked No | 2c | 12,749$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 51c | 11,665$5,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,911.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 76c | 6,341$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.45 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed No | 6c | 5,436$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 2c | 4,779$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 2c | 3,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 3c | 3,100$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed No | 27c | 2,619$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 4c | 2,550$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,141$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.99 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Yes | 60c | 1,988$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 1c | 1,808$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 3c | 1,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 20c | 1,714$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.31 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,451$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.97 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 1c | 1,364$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 25c | 1,324$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.97 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed No | 43c | 1,287$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 6c | 1,200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…5866backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 16c | 922.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.04 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 78c | 920.53$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 62c | 918.1$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.65 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 20c | 877.01$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.66 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 59c | 832.88$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.01 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…135abacked No | 40c | 824.64$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 806.08$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.62 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 36c | 608.72$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.73 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 75c | 606.43$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.69 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 45c | 516.92$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.96 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 495.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes | 63c | 476.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…7f4bbacked No | 24c | 471.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 60c | 440.5$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 8c | 417.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 73c | 389.98$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…4aeebacked No | 44c | 359.06$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 15c | 340.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…4890backed No | 30c | 337.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes | 61c | 328.64$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…9fb0backed No | 17c | 320.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f920backed Yes | 64c | 316$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.44 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 313.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f1…d3f2backed Yes | 77c | 306.23$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 32c | 300.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 78c | 294.57$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 40c | 276.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…3637backed Yes | 64c | 264.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 44c | 264.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.15 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…e070backed Yes | 58c | 257.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked Yes | 78c | 257.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…e3b9backed Yes | 43c | 255.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 80c | 248.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…78d5backed Yes | 62c | 241.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 28c | 235$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…1e54backed Yes | 62c | 232.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed No | 54c | 230$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 26c | 224.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.12 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 32c | 212.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 38c | 204$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 62c | 204$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 17c | 186.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…3c27backed Yes | 56c | 177.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 59c | 177.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 42c | 162.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.48 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed No | 19c | 156.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 29c | 153.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…9e77backed No | 34c | 151.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 32c | 151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 65c | 150.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 35c | 146.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 16c | 134.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…70bebacked Yes | 51c | 134.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 27c | 131.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…a01abacked Yes | 76c | 130.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 49c | 130.16$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 20c | 125.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 36c | 122.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…cf96backed No | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 27c | 119.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 42c | 118.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 112.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes | 73c | 110.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8edbbacked No | 31c | 108.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 62c | 105.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4067…260fbacked No | 14c | 105.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 51c | 102.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x212d…1b56backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…7b06backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…8ec3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a69…fc08backed No | 26c | 96.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…e0edbacked Yes | 65c | 95.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…05dcbacked Yes | 74c | 93.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 54c | 92.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.