TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb274…14eebacked No2c12,749$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No51c11,665$5,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,911.14355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes76c6,341$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.4534440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0796…8264backed No6c5,436$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No2c4,779$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No2c3,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed No3c3,100$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+141.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…bbd8backed No27c2,619$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.323348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked No4c2,550$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86f…256fbacked Yes60c2,141$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.996450%32 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5d…d917backed Yes60c1,988$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.92875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No1c1,808$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6818531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1a5…d228backed No3c1,800$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524827.1%13 W · 35 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+72.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No20c1,714$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.318744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes64c1,451$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.979436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No1c1,364$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.812328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No25c1,324$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9715629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x303b…6380backed No43c1,287$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.831136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf24f…cfb7backed No6c1,200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+193.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…5866backed Yes50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No16c922.42$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.0411222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…9357backed Yes78c920.53$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.95580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes62c918.1$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.6511357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No20c877.01$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6613864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes59c832.88$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.0110558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…135abacked No40c824.64$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes24c806.08$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.6230649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed No4c700$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284330.2%13 W · 30 L+5.9wins+0.14per pick16cpaid+107.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No36c608.72$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7315643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed Yes75c606.43$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.696456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No45c516.92$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9625843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No25c495.35$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.451,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes63c476.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.71560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ed…7f4bbacked No24c471.81$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes60c440.5$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.13964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No8c417.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4311329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed No73c389.98$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.945549.1%27 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x236b…4aeebacked No44c359.06$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.48933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No15c340.16$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.023221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x268b…4890backed No30c337.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes61c328.64$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.371947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x411d…9fb0backed No17c320.67$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f920backed Yes64c316$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.443933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c313.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f1…d3f2backed Yes77c306.23$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No32c300.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8921333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes78c294.57$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.28833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed Yes40c276.82$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.825950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ca…3637backed Yes64c264.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.671764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53d3…ba87backed Yes44c264.23$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.155238.5%20 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x883e…e070backed Yes58c257.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.141050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7833…d56cbacked Yes78c257.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.132133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f0…e3b9backed Yes43c255.01$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes80c248.44$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.698747.1%41 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x999c…78d5backed Yes62c241.35$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No28c235$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.426756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d47…1e54backed Yes62c232.1$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f8…2515backed No54c230$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+252.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes26c224.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1213430.6%41 W · 93 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No32c212.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.165913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes38c204$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.032857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No62c204$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.032642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed No13c199.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266437.5%24 W · 40 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No17c186.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.862036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4453…3c27backed Yes56c177.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0785…ecb4backed No59c177.11$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.495550.9%28 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed Yes42c162.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.484740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4d69backed No19c156.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72544%11 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed No29c153.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.243225%8 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5823…9e77backed No34c151.86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.962552%13 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde8f…8fd8backed No32c151$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.323250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes65c150.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4329254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No35c146.92$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1716433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No16c134.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.317354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2262…70bebacked Yes51c134.09$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No27c131.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9513255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6165…a01abacked Yes76c130.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.865250%26 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes49c130.16$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.914630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No20c125.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3112223%28 W · 94 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked No36c122.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4310141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa556…cf96backed No43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb242…eb89backed Yes27c119.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.337238.9%28 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No42c118.59$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3617929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No16c112.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8150130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1892…1b4cbacked Yes73c110.03$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.533040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8edbbacked No31c108.88$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes62c105.89$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7211257.1%64 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4067…260fbacked No14c105.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No51c102.05$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3112951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x212d…1b56backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5611016.4%18 W · 92 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb8…7b06backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe33…8ec3backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a69…fc08backed No26c96.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f3…e0edbacked Yes65c95.95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7229…05dcbacked Yes74c93.02$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No54c92.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.