Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdaf7129ff939d54464c454fa42b17430149c11b36189c06cc16223f4b72fff0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed No | 3c | 15,181$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.47 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 3,949$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 20c | 3,919$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.3 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…d6cfbacked No | 5c | 3,685$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.37 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 9c | 3,015$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 8c | 2,640$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 2c | 2,107$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 75c | 2,043$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.04 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,036$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked No | 4c | 1,806$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 9c | 1,757$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…53abbacked No | 3c | 1,575$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 1,500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,236$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 29c | 1,234$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.98 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 1,120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,108$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.71 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 4c | 1,100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 18c | 1,098$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed No | 8c | 961.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…8090backed No | 2c | 956.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…6464backed No | 22c | 908.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 2c | 809.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 802.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 5c | 799.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 771.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 629$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 623.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ed…5f23backed No | 2c | 598.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 3c | 589.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 7c | 577.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…135abacked Yes | 72c | 564.11$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.07 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…a1b5backed No | 16c | 522.03$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 15c | 501.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 7c | 499.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 5c | 452.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…a091backed No | 8c | 428.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed No | 4c | 393.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 9c | 391.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba7…4782backed No | 8c | 390.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked No | 10c | 381.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…669fbacked No | 13c | 371.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +231.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0924backed Yes | 56c | 369.63$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 11c | 360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 22c | 314.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed No | 10c | 305.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed No | 26c | 291.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed No | 7c | 286.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…86c3backed Yes | 79c | 285.58$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 6c | 242.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 7c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked No | 7c | 208.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 25c | 206.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 40c | 205$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe034…5f9ebacked No | 30c | 203.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 53c | 197.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 12c | 190$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 75c | 187.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed No | 8c | 186.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 41c | 185.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 73c | 171$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…0e35backed No | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb92…6730backed No | 10c | 157.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…b0a4backed No | 7c | 152.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 22c | 140.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 135.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed No | 16c | 126.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 11c | 123.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…def7backed No | 12c | 119.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589f…7ec2backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…76f7backed Yes | 42c | 99.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…70c6backed No | 26c | 98.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 12c | 89.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 75c | 87.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 13c | 85.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5823…9e77backed Yes | 56c | 83.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes | 37c | 80.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…8cc2backed No | 62c | 77.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked No | 19c | 75.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 42c | 66.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…5aefbacked Yes | 77c | 64.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 59c | 61.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 61c | 54.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 53.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76e1…6935backed Yes | 40c | 50.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.