Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d083b5c94607a2d585fd85db3e1c7f2acc801f03661eaa7dfb822e63c3c177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 32c | 2,937$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.5 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 9c | 2,649$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.11 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 16c | 2,180$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.98 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 71c | 1,781$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.28 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 64c | 1,320$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.26 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…13a7backed Yes | 75c | 1,036$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 31c | 927.43$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.43 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 2c | 683.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 14c | 497.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed No | 28c | 425.01$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed No | 7c | 404$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 12c | 395.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 388.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…9517backed No | 14c | 357.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 10c | 331.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 64c | 330.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 37c | 330$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed Yes | 77c | 295.81$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 294.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0924backed Yes | 73c | 279.13$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 28c | 250.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.32 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 47c | 211.53$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked No | 26c | 208.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x09cc…421abacked No | 67c | 199.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 187$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 29c | 181.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 181.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 45c | 172.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 67c | 158$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 41c | 153.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…0684backed No | 66c | 148.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 43c | 145.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 144.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 143.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 22c | 133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 14c | 125.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 12c | 122.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 120.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 54c | 120.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c8…b8f5backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…3d98backed No | 70c | 99.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…24ddbacked No | 56c | 98.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 21c | 96.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 27c | 80.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked No | 18c | 70.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8091backed Yes | 77c | 70.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 53c | 62.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 58c | 62.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 16c | 62.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69b…6155backed Yes | 78c | 60.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked No | 25c | 56.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…1bf7backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 69c | 50.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…80c7backed No | 75c | 44.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…ce04backed No | 63c | 36.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 64c | 33.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 64c | 33.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 44c | 26.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…cf39backed No | 70c | 25.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 63c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed No | 68c | 20.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked No | 73c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.