Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb04aaf35742528c1f44106bdb66a1d8f449dbdafad172cf7ad08640e178783
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb0a…93c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,218$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,035$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…21e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 32c | 942.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 3c | 783.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…14a7backed Yes | 2c | 518.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 70c | 471.01$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 399.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 75c | 345$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…d9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 5c | 255.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed Yes | 44c | 231.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 63c | 176.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…039fbacked Yes | 30c | 167.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 43c | 166.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 75c | 161.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 75c | 153.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…9fb0backed No | 69c | 144.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 35c | 143.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…3849backed Yes | 30c | 99.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 23c | 76.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked No | 73c | 73.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 49.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 41c | 49.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8091backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 44.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 58c | 44.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked No | 70c | 43.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 71c | 42.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 64c | 39.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…9fbdbacked No | 64c | 38.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…14bcbacked No | 54c | 36.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…80c7backed No | 54c | 36.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e8…3e0bbacked No | 75c | 36.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 36.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…1bf7backed No | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 71c | 35.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 46c | 31.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…ce04backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.