TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec56…13a7backed Yes72c6,739$4,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.811450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes63c5,388$3,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.9514854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No38c3,891$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.0415643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No4c3,602$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.4432243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No29c2,100$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.282352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No30c1,972$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.8913950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed No40c1,537$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.177150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No39c1,406$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55015629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes60c1,205$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.4223839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No5c1,183$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.182438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,164$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.511,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41c1…9c76backed No31c1,133$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3551145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+62.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No12c1,116$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No18c1,045$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8314854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed No35c737.18$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.01955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No32c719.06$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.916445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes69c703.34$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9710838%41 W · 67 L+11.5wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+62.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No22c669.63$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.275913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe33…8ec3backed No39c513.83$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.892360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes60c502.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.55560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked No44c456.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed No43c400$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1736456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No38c399.97$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9919648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63b3…ff39backed No51c397.48$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.44740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23c…4391backed Yes77c390.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.191154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No13c388.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3936634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No13c379.84$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5912023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No28c377.47$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked No38c371.21$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.434942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No12c371.06$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0429254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x883e…e070backed No21c365.77$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.451050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes61c349$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.193964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb30…6498backed Yes57c345.53$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.941566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9989…89bfbacked No18c340.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.263265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No7c325$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2511329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffe…999fbacked Yes63c324.02$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.731942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d06…00d4backed No35c321.04$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1577…8091backed Yes75c320.82$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.47135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes75c277.33$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.335549.1%27 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No14c252.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2138247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No44c250.38$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1826756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5da3…8440backed Yes77c239.11$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No16c233.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.582036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x872e…e58fbacked Yes44c227.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.093234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe364…4b24backed Yes75c226.84$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.941827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3057…0e96backed Yes64c224.33$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.64785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick71cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff05…0a63backed Yes55c219.3$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6710428.8%30 W · 74 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299a…e6d6backed Yes72c208.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1828126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843650%18 W · 18 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+9.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No46c186.73$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No16c180.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4410321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes65c178.97$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7513255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed Yes80c176.57$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.571464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes27c169.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2213864.5%89 W · 49 L+41.8wins+0.30per pick34cpaid+83.6%equal weight78+0.26 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked No15c164.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.376516.9%11 W · 54 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No14c163.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.094136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c5…1036backed No36c160.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.09966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63e3…f341backed No65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010549.5%52 W · 53 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed No11c152.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.46918.8%13 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed Yes35c150$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.56855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5770…4397backed Yes58c128.76$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0b…e742backed No48c123.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed No22c123.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.739728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No39c123.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.647636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…4554backed Yes65c119.88$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.962857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes64c109.31$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2912951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No35c108.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9816433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked No37c107.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes56c101.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4334234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed No29c101.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.616752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e97…727fbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3056336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x149f…d306backed No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4811357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…a2f8backed No13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136437.5%24 W · 40 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No17c98.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.189714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed No32c91.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked No40c88.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.391346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes41c87.86$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.065244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaf7…b963backed Yes59c85.4$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.43046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2488…c286backed No33c84.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.834141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf00d…a887backed Yes78c81.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.323554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes37c80.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.562544%11 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+79.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c77.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4339621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed No17c77.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.061656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ae…beb5backed Yes77c65.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.252462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+38.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.628438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0202…55b0backed No54c55.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c55.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2f7…da97backed Yes64c54.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed No43c54.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.276144.3%27 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf8…2094backed Yes35c54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.13652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+56.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x357d…8c4fbacked No57c52.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.535921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1312040%48 W · 72 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes61c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3736035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No55c44.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4415338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.