Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80307932a0214852b47e9745390d04c197cea1ca0dce34c80299d842795a059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec56…13a7backed Yes | 72c | 6,739$4,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 63c | 5,388$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.95 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 38c | 3,891$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.04 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 4c | 3,602$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a76…3022backed No | 29c | 2,100$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 30c | 1,972$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.89 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 40c | 1,537$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.17 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 39c | 1,406$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 60c | 1,205$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.42 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 1,183$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,164$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c1…9c76backed No | 31c | 1,133$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 1,116$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 18c | 1,045$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.83 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a6…5d97backed No | 35c | 737.18$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 32c | 719.06$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.91 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 69c | 703.34$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.97 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 669.63$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…8ec3backed No | 39c | 513.83$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…d3bebacked Yes | 60c | 502.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…860abacked No | 44c | 456.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 43c | 400$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 38c | 399.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 51c | 397.48$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…4391backed Yes | 77c | 390.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 13c | 388.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 13c | 379.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 28c | 377.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked No | 38c | 371.21$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 12c | 371.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x883e…e070backed No | 21c | 365.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 61c | 349$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.19 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6498backed Yes | 57c | 345.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…89bfbacked No | 18c | 340.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 7c | 325$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…999fbacked Yes | 63c | 324.02$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…00d4backed No | 35c | 321.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…8091backed Yes | 75c | 320.82$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…f5a1backed Yes | 75c | 277.33$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 14c | 252.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 44c | 250.38$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da3…8440backed Yes | 77c | 239.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 16c | 233.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 44c | 227.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…4b24backed Yes | 75c | 226.84$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…0e96backed Yes | 64c | 224.33$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 55c | 219.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…e6d6backed Yes | 72c | 208.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 46c | 186.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 16c | 180.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 65c | 178.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed Yes | 80c | 176.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 27c | 169.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.22 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 15c | 164.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 14c | 163.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c5…1036backed No | 36c | 160.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 11c | 152.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…4397backed Yes | 58c | 128.76$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…e742backed No | 48c | 123.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 22c | 123.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 39c | 123.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 65c | 119.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 64c | 109.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 35c | 108.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 37c | 107.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 56c | 101.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed No | 29c | 101.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…727fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 17c | 98.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed No | 32c | 91.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 40c | 88.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 41c | 87.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 59c | 85.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 33c | 84.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf00d…a887backed Yes | 78c | 81.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4d69backed Yes | 37c | 80.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 77.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 17c | 77.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…beb5backed Yes | 77c | 65.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 54c | 55.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 55.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…da97backed Yes | 64c | 54.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 43c | 54.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked No | 57c | 52.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 61c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.