TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$727,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$679,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,468 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88b2…f7a2backed No0c80,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbc…f38bbacked No0c77,829$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.351811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-53.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa95f…5e82backed No0c19,333$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-72.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No2c14,581$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7111222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…9a74backed No0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No2c12,012$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6917414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d7…bf89backed No1c11,248$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No1c10,433$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.531915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No6c9,811$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.3215338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes70c8,003$5,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.6814854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaafb…fa19backed No0c7,583$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c7,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed No0c6,869$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496d…345ebacked No0c6,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11bf…151cbacked No0c5,667$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c5,644$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.995071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6421backed No0c5,258$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b7…7f9ebacked No0c5,114$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b6…c9bdbacked No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No15c4,919$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.2312328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No13c4,915$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.797632.9%25 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c13…ce0ebacked No0c4,609$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96639.5%6 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7446…8368backed No15c4,427$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.461827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No18c4,318$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.7121333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9583…bd4dbacked No0c4,250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed No18c4,230$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No14c4,110$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.758744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No19c4,075$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.45913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No22c4,020$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.8213544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No5c3,755$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.817740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No27c3,577$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.582944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9849…0891backed No0c3,464$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a6…5d97backed No9c2,928$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab81…6e6dbacked No4c2,797$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.92850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No7c2,780$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3712918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c2,753$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.352438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked No4c2,719$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1922927.1%62 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed No6c2,562$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.936456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c2,560$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.517135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No24c2,539$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.7625843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No7c2,479$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2528438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked No1c2,348$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.141657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No34c2,323$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.9214854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed No14c2,311$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.716952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No27c2,238$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.6432243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a76…3022backed No11c2,210$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.672352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7806…6594backed Yes71c2,191$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.331747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c2,160$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.281,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked No7c2,154$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.871145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No15c1,841$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2930649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes53c1,826$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.4129254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed No29c1,700$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.487150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd25e…f458backed No9c1,693$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…5475backed No8c1,673$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.183119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No3c1,671$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7427233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No4c1,665$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0325339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed No3c1,638$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No11c1,602$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No7c1,595$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.914015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes73c1,589$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.6336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3ace…f439backed No30c1,489$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b4…4d69backed No7c1,422$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.253315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed No26c1,420$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.5819648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked No7c1,400$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.45731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55ec…9063backed Yes80c1,327$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2711145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked No9c1,311$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No17c1,297$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.239825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53e0…4466backed No5c1,288$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No15c1,236$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6742311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No26c1,117$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.829057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7244…72e4backed No14c1,100$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525152.9%27 W · 24 L+16.4wins+0.32per pick21cpaid+138.8%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No10c1,087$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1642329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes78c1,073$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.311357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No7c1,063$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.932036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e40…fc98backed Yes58c1,028$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.054440.9%18 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd83…355cbacked No4c1,001$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed No2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes72c925.21$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.849028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked No4c913$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5acd…08fabacked No8c905.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.566939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed No15c890.69$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c870.66$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.74136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7f…b882backed No3c868.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.38429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c849.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.384195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No9c820$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.81127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+165.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No28c809.87$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1220438.7%79 W · 125 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked No12c802.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.09911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-82.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x420f…a31ebacked No8c791.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.922846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62ea…b955backed Yes62c725.89$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b6…5de0backed Yes69c725.12$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No25c716.17$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.822627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked No37c703.97$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes61c688.86$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.656752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes57c683.59$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.267243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No6c663.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x632d…0526backed Yes80c657.96$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes56c654.8$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.85416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No23c636.45$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5817929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdb…d1b6backed No31c627.08$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No18c619.96$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.427636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.