TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x72e8…3664

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: IPO, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 51 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.57
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.59
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.72
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$44.01
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+219.5%+$438.95
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$22.55
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$31.97
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+142.1%+$28.43
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$23.92
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.44
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+72.8%+$72.76
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$490.27
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.24
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$141
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
All 19 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$6.4
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+63.6%+$22.27
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.32
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$8.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Murphy Cassonebacked Yu-Hsiou Hsu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.