TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$318,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$331,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0681…f713backed Yes8c82,454$6,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,885.5680%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c9…b7c0backed Yes5c5,946$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d9…9074backed Yes7c4,438$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c3,892$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7614421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed Yes8c3,464$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26880%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes14c3,375$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes5c2,886$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x574f…b919backed Yes17c2,829$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes10c2,361$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.166833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes18c2,347$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed Yes10c2,328$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2341931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes9c2,250$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed Yes7c2,051$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed Yes6c2,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5efe…5f55backed Yes6c1,950$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.21421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes4c1,905$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…13ecbacked Yes8c1,875$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c1,600$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.44167.5%31 W · 385 L-25.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-68.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes13c1,574$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da1…9b56backed Yes7c1,524$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick23cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd3…c8ebbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes15c1,352$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes7c1,347$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d5…3378backed Yes7c1,265$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes8c1,224$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.433042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes4c1,216$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2870%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6af…05c6backed Yes18c1,100$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…0bffbacked Yes11c1,100$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd65…927fbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a31…1164backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9950…6d78backed Yes8c999.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes5c942.12$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.86825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c929.59$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2919818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c859.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.231,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd359…d361backed Yes7c854.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.79850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed Yes11c819.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5e…de5fbacked Yes6c802$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes5c795.38$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.88790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes4c771$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.319525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes6c756.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes6c741.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes14c736.77$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.151915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-71.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeafc…a390backed Yes12c714.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.831338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x741d…92a9backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x858b…4c07backed Yes14c705.37$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa202…9b12backed Yes11c668.35$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes4c664$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.98123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32ab…fe70backed Yes6c656.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe21d…54e9backed Yes15c612.03$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb648…3090backed Yes8c607.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x937e…8022backed Yes6c599.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52e0…89e4backed Yes10c570$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes16c522.55$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.494938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c510$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf367…f959backed Yes19c508$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9334…3279backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8452…fcf7backed Yes7c500$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768c…ebf8backed Yes7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c445.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.421388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcad4…96d0backed Yes6c416.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes6c414.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.875632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…63aebacked Yes6c383.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f59…0be6backed Yes21c378.18$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes10c365$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.792334.8%8 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes10c361.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.257143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes6c339.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7219432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe01a…cd84backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbf2…2b86backed Yes8c319.05$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes23c318$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.146040%24 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…3599backed Yes6c311.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8390…09f1backed No80c310.26$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd173…1b86backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986b…2624backed Yes13c297.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked No74c292.69$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.151838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d1b…7676backed No45c289.47$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.471643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes7c289$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes10c280$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe518…f0fcbacked Yes13c267.47$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6750%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13b3…7801backed Yes7c257.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes7c250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa524…86bcbacked Yes7c241.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a22…2851backed Yes6c239.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f5…d417backed Yes9c227.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes8c220$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.825349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a7…5049backed Yes5c217.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85bf…d588backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…2fffbacked Yes11c210$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1585…025abacked Yes11c210$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7360%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54f5…7239backed Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x152e…9963backed Yes9c195.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb618…4149backed Yes15c186.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7db…6688backed Yes7c173.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1480%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.