AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bfff6b74f973ac37a82fb3c2543c80aa0e24eb8255ea752b1852098214d394b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 0c | 23,007$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…8c0ebacked No | 1c | 10,035$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 6c | 4,400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 2,751$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.17 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 9c | 2,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 9c | 1,800$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 1,716$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.36 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed No | 10c | 1,571$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 9c | 1,350$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 7c | 1,200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 2c | 700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 28c | 314$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed No | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 15c | 153$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 33c | 106$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 105$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 31c | 77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 42.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…68ebbacked Yes | 32c | 41.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.