TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$410,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$433,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 393 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28e6…3a7ebacked No0c50,018$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fb…fd30backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes36c38,964$14,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,749.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551f…6c2bbacked No0c34,497$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46e7…3773backed No65c15,523$10,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,089.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes39c14,771$5,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,960.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1437…acfebacked No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100390%0 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed No64c10,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4002450%12 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45dd…7181backed Yes41c8,831$3,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,168.63825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8231…652bbacked Yes41c8,327$3,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,903.5520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No20c8,065$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed No46c7,690$3,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,503.443710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No63c7,228$4,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,571.991833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-54.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…bbdbbacked No64c6,971$4,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,475.2714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No58c5,000$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.0812636.5%46 W · 80 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes42c4,110$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.6210561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No64c3,752$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.43330.3%10 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes38c3,373$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.6919818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cd…29b4backed No1c3,348$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No70c3,331$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.8145738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No66c3,223$2,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,141.523429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No63c2,783$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7458864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31ab…86cfbacked No58c2,594$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.661163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df7…36c4backed Yes39c2,528$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a97…3b04backed Yes36c2,487$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed Yes39c2,428$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.31931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc21b…31d1backed No59c2,252$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes40c2,002$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.081540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes14c2,000$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71019432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…e696backed No59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e59…ff78backed Yes45c2,000$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0901127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed No1c2,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes54c1,966$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No61c1,958$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.854942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a71…78c9backed Yes54c1,716$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.37520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34ab…840ebacked No60c1,691$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bc…81cebacked No63c1,600$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.9740%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No79c1,582$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.931650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No63c1,575$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No67c1,565$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0554259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6607…5bd9backed Yes51c1,515$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.641250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a45…aa58backed No1c1,496$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1b…ffc0backed Yes52c1,495$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.79650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a9…0b88backed No65c1,455$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.613943.6%17 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad2…3a5dbacked No58c1,415$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes40c1,396$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.3714421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf501…fa89backed Yes35c1,395$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.34540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb3…51c8backed Yes47c1,230$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.891020%2 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-63.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No3c1,203$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.121741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes40c1,179$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.3617824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No68c1,138$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.552965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Yes44c1,124$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.592454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc759…b965backed Yes33c1,113$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.876015%9 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb72…aa19backed Yes69c1,044$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.87812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0b…016abacked No65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes40c999.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc445…552cbacked No63c999.99$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes48c999.98$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.991050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe9…7aaabacked Yes37c965.92$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No69c946.96$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.4850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cd0…f278backed No48c938.53$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbef0…86efbacked No63c936.27$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…12d6backed Yes56c925.13$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed No63c911$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.382969%20 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+52.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No51c908.05$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.5647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2613…8527backed Yes67c899.95$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d93…c671backed Yes56c880$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3841747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x551b…e339backed No1c867.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No56c866.97$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.351921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdee9…a128backed No67c864.22$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9349…c62bbacked No1c836.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes41c802.83$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.54938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8253…e51bbacked No2c800$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked No47c789.76$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes43c779.71$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.485538.2%21 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8473…70efbacked Yes41c735.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes38c692.61$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.721838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes36c686$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.3211636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes18c672.19$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.2580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick32cpaid+191.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x07e0…1db9backed Yes36c663.1$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.742638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+69.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes32c644.55$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.2912636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Yes54c640$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6218…f344backed No70c615.82$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No49c614.79$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.7414250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Yes37c588.28$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.931752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cee…ad03backed Yes31c575.55$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes42c567$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.861464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes45c560$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.228826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abe…f19fbacked No46c542.12$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5888…940ebacked Yes37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes36c523.12$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+88.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54f5…7239backed No52c499.99$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c51…3f38backed Yes42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No58c454.84$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.811723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-61.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No69c443.99$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.352147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes40c441.81$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.694050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba04…b544backed No54c439.2$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbae…0f67backed No63c428.91$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed No35c406.24$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.