AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1181a2844bb0f2dc46fb735c69491f0c912b22f3e8c8c6777d9fe99ca955e45a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 7c | 4,599$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 4,599$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,343$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,519$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 8c | 1,331$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…c211backed No | 3c | 1,216$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…758dbacked No | 3c | 900$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 3c | 881.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 726.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 662.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 8c | 642.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed No | 3c | 620.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 557.12$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 16c | 531$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 487.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…a025backed No | 4c | 459.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed No | 15c | 399.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…90a3backed No | 5c | 399.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 3c | 378.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 3c | 378.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 9c | 346.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff46…87b7backed No | 5c | 315.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 277.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed No | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 9c | 211$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa65…8e78backed No | 11c | 176.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 167.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66bc…621dbacked No | 12c | 162.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 75c | 133.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2041…e9eebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94d…6210backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2144…a60dbacked No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…6b39backed Yes | 13c | 78.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…66b5backed No | 16c | 68.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.