AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2218b692892b3037bdcac3f240cb9a7db510f179fcbe45c4e7c9c633fa9f65aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 1c | 5,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,706$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,086$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes | 80c | 760$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 35c | 492.31$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.16 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 61c | 377.17$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 74c | 364.59$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 201.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 153.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 28c | 130.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 66c | 107.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 66c | 107$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 83.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…c2d3backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…12d8backed Yes | 69c | 43.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 77c | 38.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.