AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe9afdc8ee63ae05390f983745281caf67242cd7a69b6a6950335067a99a871
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 9c | 34,239$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 17,216$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.92 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b7c0backed Yes | 3c | 5,955$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 6c | 5,739$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Yes | 4c | 2,247$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…ab6fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,129$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…e481backed Yes | 4c | 1,924$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,733$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…f51dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 1,236$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 1,133$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…917cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,064$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 7c | 839.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 10c | 838.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 793.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 776.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…e3c8backed Yes | 10c | 775.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…4c07backed Yes | 8c | 700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes | 4c | 678.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed No | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 7c | 542.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8d…109dbacked Yes | 19c | 534.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…0bffbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 469.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 7c | 450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502a…5f8fbacked Yes | 23c | 439.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 15c | 420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…cbe0backed Yes | 10c | 320.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…ee6abacked Yes | 8c | 302.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 297.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 6c | 262.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 6c | 247.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 5c | 229$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 221$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 6c | 194.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…56f8backed Yes | 9c | 194.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 10c | 189.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f4…84d3backed Yes | 11c | 183.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 8c | 171$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…9e9abacked No | 56c | 168.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…e94cbacked Yes | 8c | 159.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…df06backed Yes | 10c | 146.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefb…09febacked Yes | 12c | 131.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…3e82backed Yes | 11c | 116.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 10c | 104.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…7239backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…bf08backed No | 67c | 87.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 47.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.