AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf594894c1077567713bc88219fd6bcfcec8ea1e0f6e29cbcc9d7688f1c9c11c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 7c | 18,765$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991e…4f83backed Yes | 7c | 11,946$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Yes | 10c | 11,330$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…9168backed Yes | 5c | 10,065$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,881$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Yes | 10c | 7,023$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 4c | 6,543$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.72 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 6,336$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…f7d6backed Yes | 3c | 5,560$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…36bebacked Yes | 5c | 4,911$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ae…1002backed Yes | 2c | 4,661$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,231$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.61 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,873$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes | 6c | 3,060$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.04 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba1…0d6ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,702$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…e481backed Yes | 1c | 2,677$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,573$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…a877backed Yes | 3c | 2,480$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 8c | 2,444$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9926…5d2cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,261$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…aa19backed Yes | 5c | 2,093$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 5c | 1,896$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 5c | 1,845$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,828$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,617$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67e…6b44backed Yes | 5c | 1,580$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a5…0713backed Yes | 3c | 1,576$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 2c | 1,562$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…9e33backed Yes | 4c | 1,501$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…c153backed Yes | 1c | 1,425$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…1743backed Yes | 3c | 1,406$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,336$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63ef…c29dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,336$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…5b49backed Yes | 5c | 1,331$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9192…0f21backed Yes | 1c | 1,255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,180$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…97cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,159$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a24…22d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,036$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 2c | 848.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7181backed Yes | 3c | 796$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…141abacked Yes | 4c | 784$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a7…3145backed Yes | 4c | 766.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…a9efbacked Yes | 9c | 716.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…764abacked Yes | 9c | 698.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…0c76backed Yes | 6c | 696.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 5c | 687.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…55e9backed Yes | 3c | 663.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…df06backed Yes | 12c | 650.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 622.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 6c | 541.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 2c | 505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b073backed Yes | 2c | 502.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4d…e59bbacked Yes | 2c | 476.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 5c | 456.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…d2f7backed Yes | 2c | 430.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6566…ea1ebacked Yes | 3c | 429.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 412.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 3c | 377.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…3ad1backed Yes | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 6c | 339.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 3c | 304.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…fec3backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b3…7801backed Yes | 8c | 222.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b48…ebe7backed Yes | 5c | 221.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ea…a322backed Yes | 8c | 198.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…df1fbacked Yes | 8c | 185.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Yes | 7c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.