TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$505,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$497,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 443 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0681…f713backed Yes52c23,400$12,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,201.780%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No51c11,965$6,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,868.281643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41b…36bebacked Yes32c10,740$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,474.38540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9567…e505backed No52c10,459$5,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,012.414100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0143…239abacked Yes17c8,884$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-41.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16fc…b16bbacked Yes1c8,452$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ea…9d46backed No62c8,132$5,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c7,252$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.522560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes7c6,102$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes19c5,864$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed Yes33c5,409$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.142516%4 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Yes10c5,032$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed Yes6c4,959$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Yes11c4,803$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.511838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes28c4,793$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.3414421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes55c4,570$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.425343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes6c4,445$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.1926312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes35c4,053$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes17c3,961$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.0512636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No78c3,862$3,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.478864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7a7c…eca0backed Yes29c3,750$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x587c…9c4ebacked Yes23c3,603$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes46c3,541$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.365151%26 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8452…fcf7backed No59c3,422$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91aa…9168backed Yes3c3,280$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde76…e923backed Yes61c3,238$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b9…57ecbacked No66c3,023$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf28…7f92backed Yes8c2,900$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d5e…a877backed Yes6c2,803$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2870%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac23…9064backed Yes27c2,684$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca78…b3a8backed Yes13c2,681$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4880%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…3b04backed Yes8c2,634$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes1c2,610$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes52c2,603$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.677238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No48c2,450$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.616334.9%22 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No45c2,298$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.43850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb72…aa19backed Yes15c2,263$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.64812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes44c2,225$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.81714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No41c2,208$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.28540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c2,201$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.611388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked No59c2,177$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes5c2,162$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.611833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No49c2,143$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.2717824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No74c2,099$1,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.374942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes20c2,030$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed No69c2,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6202100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1817…9eb2backed No59c1,935$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed No54c1,850$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.623828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8231…652bbacked Yes13c1,807$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.38520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed No50c1,786$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.381520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6547…82b3backed Yes48c1,772$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes19c1,767$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.021540%6 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,761$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.253042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c1,707$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.024157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c1,680$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8280%0 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9e…c707backed Yes18c1,633$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes15c1,632$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.814250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeee…20fbbacked No66c1,524$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa069…1e59backed Yes7c1,505$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-66.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c68…f7d6backed Yes55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd194…c51fbacked Yes7c1,486$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No46c1,424$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc759…b965backed Yes15c1,420$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.266015%9 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…dc73backed Yes19c1,400$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453b…1575backed No43c1,377$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No47c1,297$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.849839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfcc…12a6backed No69c1,286$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.072065%13 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed No69c1,286$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2613…8527backed Yes77c1,281$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50d…483dbacked Yes6c1,255$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c1,217$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.4347938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c1,200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf501…fa89backed Yes9c1,200$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No65c1,148$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.863855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes11c1,125$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.86812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2f9…e108backed Yes6c1,100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef0…86efbacked No56c1,084$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…6564backed Yes18c1,082$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…fa0ebacked Yes49c1,041$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d1b…ffc0backed Yes26c1,020$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.08650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfb3…4b43backed No53c1,011$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.242450%12 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b8d…6724backed Yes25c1,000$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.72454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d93…c671backed Yes22c1,000$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.21747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e59…ff78backed Yes28c999.99$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes38c999.99$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3821050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6607…5bd9backed Yes22c999.99$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.41250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a71…78c9backed Yes37c999.98$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.49520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-63.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes51c999.98$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.993935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee8b…64e7backed No50c993.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa684…240cbacked Yes7c970$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1963…9bfdbacked Yes11c938$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0589…b26bbacked Yes7c930$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No66c925$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3311636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes3c900$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31731.4%1 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1024…9651backed No62c881.01$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52e0…89e4backed No53c864.6$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c862.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.242674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc9…828abacked Yes64c861.45$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cee…ad03backed Yes67c848.23$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No74c811.44$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.444259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.