AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82f967dadcec8cee52e0fa29fc0d39e818fc7e320772db0f05c44039042bf72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 4c | 39,077$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.69 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…9168backed Yes | 2c | 9,585$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,264$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 10c | 6,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.22 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 1c | 3,787$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 10c | 3,297$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Yes | 2c | 3,112$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,068$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 2,931$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,879$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,766$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 15c | 2,444$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 6c | 2,277$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 9c | 2,210$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.2 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,999$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185a…2305backed Yes | 2c | 1,690$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ab…fe70backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,621$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.31 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,575$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…bbdbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,507$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4d…e59bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,275$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,081$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes | 3c | 960.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 920$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…61ffbacked Yes | 3c | 886.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa21…f3f4backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafb…bb11backed Yes | 5c | 771.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 712.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…42bfbacked Yes | 2c | 660.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 4c | 640.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 13c | 528.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…7da3backed Yes | 4c | 504.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…4676backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…a877backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…da9dbacked Yes | 6c | 499.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd5…a038backed Yes | 11c | 444.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 2c | 440$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 9c | 422$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…f19fbacked Yes | 4c | 415.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…4f4dbacked Yes | 3c | 409.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…63dfbacked Yes | 5c | 408$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb793…1268backed Yes | 11c | 364.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 306.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d01…fe71backed Yes | 11c | 275$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 4c | 259.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 5c | 245.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…b784backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6e…c234backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde4…7bfdbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 197.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…cea8backed Yes | 10c | 195.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb618…4149backed Yes | 12c | 170.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 120.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…a025backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 13c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…d6fbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?this page
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?No won
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.