TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf25c…732c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$158
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$113.9
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+302.7%+$432.96
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.88
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+160.4%+$138.6
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.2
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 650.0k by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$304.43
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 700.0k by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$123
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$102
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.5
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.75
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.60per pick20cpaid+329.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+89.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+141.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,364.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+592.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.08
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$147.49
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$249
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$42.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Firebacked Ray J · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.