Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x376c13c57a240193d42f418ee0cbb0ae72d15f4688060c84ccdd2ec7d1a32643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0597…5265backed Yes | 70c | 718.21$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 47c | 639.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 560.68$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 48c | 526.88$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.82 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 24c | 511.72$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.61 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 59c | 498.62$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.93 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 439.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 419.82$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.52 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 271.61$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 70c | 244.06$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 220.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 20c | 219.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 12c | 209.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 178.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 15c | 159.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 74c | 158.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 150.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 149$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 137.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 137.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 130.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.47 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 22c | 130$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 19c | 128.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 127.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 122.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 18c | 121.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 118.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 110.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 18c | 106.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 102$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 100.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 19c | 98.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 20c | 97.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 94.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 31c | 94.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 46c | 87.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 86.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 31c | 83.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 43c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 64c | 78.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 78.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 72.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 67.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 22c | 66.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 66.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 18c | 65.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f59dbacked No | 66c | 62.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 35c | 60.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 29c | 59.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…45b3backed Yes | 33c | 57.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 21c | 57.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 53.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 52.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 61c | 51.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 29c | 46.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 23c | 44.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 26c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 37c | 43.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 41c | 41.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 35.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 34c | 33.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 76c | 33.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 30.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…b84fbacked No | 62c | 28.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 27.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 78c | 25.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 22.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 79c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 74c | 18.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…efccbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 77c | 14.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.