TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,958
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,958 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4d1…1733backed Yes0c36,832$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4821338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes23c505.95$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.784,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes44c504.34$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.683935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes33c387.13$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No74c373.1$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes8c350.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4520144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No78c215.43$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.412,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No53c204.06$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.7263143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.11,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe80c…9888backed Yes44c195.73$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.182222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c180.63$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.679,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c178.54$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.562,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No68c168.78$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.973,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes44c147.65$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes14c141.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.411138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c140.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.512,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No74c135.34$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.552,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c129$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.955,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c125.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…0174backed Yes61c106.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes29c105.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.242,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes25c103.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.278,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes62c99.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.91,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes52c98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3325946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes48c97.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.53129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa596…15e9backed Yes53c94.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No62c93.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.372,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes22c92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6172837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed No48c91.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.523743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc04…f59dbacked No67c81.88$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.021435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-42.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No52c74.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635a…cccbbacked Yes57c71.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.399150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes47c66.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No53c63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.922,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c61.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.443,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No56c61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7126067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes43c60.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.889443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No48c54.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.481,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No60c54.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6424539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes64c53.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5646444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c52.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…2c8fbacked Yes49c51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No64c50.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.364,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.534934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes35c45.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No57c42.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No57c41.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9842049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No55c41.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.681376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No42c41.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.061,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked Yes40c39.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8319059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed No52c38.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.696660.6%40 W · 26 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No75c38.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.661,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…9571backed No75c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.521173.5%155 W · 56 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No70c37.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2542762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No59c37.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes40c36.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.845,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes46c35.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1645236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No55c34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2269520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3808…8b90backed No79c32.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.98563.5%54 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No61c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.094,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes55c30.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1344536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No52c30.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.556643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…a43cbacked No47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.763348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb17…ee85backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77739%30 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5814…bbfabacked No56c29.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No67c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5244659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf759…0221backed Yes52c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1342…c430backed No61c28.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.133441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x355c…ab2ebacked Yes43c28.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No70c27.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4638758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes52c27.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5643842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab7…e715backed No73c27.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No54c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No58c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.921,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2de…0811backed No57c25.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.153,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No47c24.48$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8989951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9d8…0be8backed Yes55c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf211…385dbacked No48c23.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.067040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…b1b2backed No47c22.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.953941%16 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe14a…c6c8backed No61c22.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.826459.4%38 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No52c21.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3948672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes47c21.82$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3112147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked Yes57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4930168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…4edcbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.25874.1%43 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca90…a8dfbacked No77c19.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.44650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes64c18.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.062,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfc…0be4backed No62c18.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.963735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.511163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.