Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34ae2d672b94184b1547cd06c4d990030dfaba9d9956b0ba853e7b0a40ba98b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 0c | 36,832$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 505.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 44c | 504.34$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 33c | 387.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 373.1$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 8c | 350.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 215.43$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 53c | 204.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 44c | 195.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 180.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 178.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 168.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 147.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 14c | 141.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 140.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 135.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 129$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 125.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 61c | 106.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 105.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 103.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 99.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 52c | 98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 48c | 97.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 53c | 94.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 93.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 48c | 91.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…f59dbacked No | 67c | 81.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 52c | 74.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 57c | 71.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 47c | 66.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 61.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 56c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 43c | 60.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 54.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 54.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 64c | 53.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 52.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…2c8fbacked Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 50.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 35c | 45.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 57c | 42.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 57c | 41.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 55c | 41.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 42c | 41.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 40c | 39.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 52c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 38.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 70c | 37.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 59c | 37.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 36.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 46c | 35.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 55c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 79c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 55c | 30.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 52c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…bbfabacked No | 56c | 29.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 61c | 28.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…ab2ebacked Yes | 43c | 28.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 70c | 27.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 52c | 27.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…e715backed No | 73c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…0811backed No | 57c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 47c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…0be8backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 48c | 23.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 61c | 22.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 52c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 47c | 21.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca90…a8dfbacked No | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 64c | 18.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.