Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92c95e9b2ea09d40fea4d1cf4f71642ba6ca3f276ed357b8eb791d0375adfb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 62c | 7,179$4,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,441.82 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 22c | 2,083$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 27c | 1,500$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 40c | 1,496$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 637.11$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 72c | 483.67$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…6cdabacked No | 23c | 434$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 15c | 417.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +313.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 255.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 42c | 185.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 147$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 13c | 117.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 113.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 17c | 104.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 102.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 33c | 101.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 41c | 98.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 98.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 44c | 90.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 14c | 83.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 58c | 79.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 20c | 72.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed Yes | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 42c | 70.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf23…733ebacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes | 17c | 65.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…b208backed No | 43c | 58.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.28per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 35c | 57.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 33c | 40.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed Yes | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 41c | 36.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 36.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba42…c13bbacked No | 73c | 33.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966b…2ee6backed No | 58c | 21.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 58c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.