Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x883660f3f9a1212d9793b922b1bda8453c7f3ff6f2bbd9dbd8a43efcde025d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 12c | 665.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 32c | 123.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 65c | 88.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 32c | 62.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 65c | 59.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c9…bf07backed Yes | 35c | 49.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…f8d4backed Yes | 35c | 43.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 70c | 39.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 66c | 32.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 65c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 66c | 29.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.