Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc970097adebff649018e643bfc7394f2590c308fc283973135996702149db053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed Yes | 13c | 820$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 23c | 799.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 17c | 721$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 28c | 699.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 465$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 3c | 457.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 15c | 399$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 20c | 272$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 80c | 272$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 271.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 69c | 270.74$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 13c | 252$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 19c | 201.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 15c | 201.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 13c | 172$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 167.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 124.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 68c | 100.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…e203backed No | 79c | 97.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa08c…dc50backed Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 83.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 77c | 59.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 76c | 53.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 27c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…8addbacked No | 62c | 33.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 80c | 31.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 69c | 18.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?this page
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.