Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d36c974fe26a58e8bf60c030e4ea0f3d1900d441c110f400801d09f565fe8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 68c | 1,033$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.69 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 27c | 891.63$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 77c | 647.77$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 7c | 540$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 98.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 92.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 75c | 56.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 33c | 51.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 69c | 45.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 78c | 38.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 30.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x112c…b853backed Yes | 36c | 30.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd2…abdebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 59c | 28.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 68c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…b3cfbacked No | 65c | 21.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9992…307cbacked No | 66c | 20.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 62c | 19.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.