Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cda63b9418e5165566496b87f04d454964f22484eca98aa09d410f205998d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 63c | 1,054$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 786.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 33c | 727.63$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…5743backed Yes | 70c | 711.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 64c | 694.24$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.47 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 26c | 605.28$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 54c | 400$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 4c | 396.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 3c | 375.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 30c | 336.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 20c | 245.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 23c | 199.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.89 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed Yes | 45c | 177.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 22c | 176.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 52c | 139.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…3ed5backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 73c | 134.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 118.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 71c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 66c | 111.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 71c | 110.58$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked No | 32c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 49c | 104.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 93.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…0738backed No | 43c | 92.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 90.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.67 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 73c | 81.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 32c | 72.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 37c | 72.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6a…02b7backed Yes | 72c | 66.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 26c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…a2a9backed No | 27c | 44.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 52c | 44.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 62c | 40.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 29c | 39.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…e0e3backed Yes | 27c | 39.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 65c | 36.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…3e4ebacked Yes | 68c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked No | 65c | 30.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +242.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 47c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 48c | 24.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed No | 44c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…0925backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…b134backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.