TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4066…2407backed Yes38c8,043$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080.513243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked No19c1,050$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.5540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+89.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x100a…c6cebacked No10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No50c906.01$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.4118368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No48c863.03$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.6713160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No61c717.96$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3831262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04fa…f437backed No56c421.68$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No32c401.54$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.124,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes6c400.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No45c398.67$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.274065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab0…6364backed Yes60c354.63$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.914938.8%19 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+91.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16e…c43ebacked No56c330.9$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-48.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes30c279.04$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5642130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaccd…befdbacked No62c275.93$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.232437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-47.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c260$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2f…a13cbacked No57c246.4$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.885981.4%48 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes22c245.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.686053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked Yes5c244.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed No16c215.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.09450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+164.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c212.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.155,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes40c177.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1412228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb95e…8b12backed No78c177.31$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.755488.9%48 W · 6 L+12.5wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+40%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed No58c170.41$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.572759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+59.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed No51c133.14$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2743050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No46c130.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1330664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6024539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed No55c113.3$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.761070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc3…37b9backed No60c109.75$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.767464.9%48 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No19c105$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.153324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c75…6e43backed No40c94.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+153.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eb9…83acbacked No33c90.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.653154.8%17 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+41.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes16c90.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2352322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed No55c90.13$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8754857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No42c89.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.971,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No48c89$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No51c88.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No62c84.55$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.811,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c78.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1048…e362backed No44c77.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.277153.5%38 W · 33 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+62%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5043…979ebacked Yes40c76.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No53c75.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6244465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed No39c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7511950.4%60 W · 59 L+13.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28f8…b5f7backed No53c72.72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.132965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3037942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No28c54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.011,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No45c53.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.272,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes25c53.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.425946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No60c50.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3934970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes38c50.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.189439.4%37 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid+48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9b…492abacked No39c50.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.517365.3%113 W · 60 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3454867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes80c46.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No31c45.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3235058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes58c44.65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267263.9%46 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…154ebacked No49c43.47$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.335354.7%29 W · 24 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No37c41.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.284,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f46…77e8backed No30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812625.4%32 W · 94 L+9.0wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No41c39.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4338758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No51c38.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5639158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd290…14f3backed Yes47c37.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…7f8abacked No61c36.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.14463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No52c35.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9739157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No52c33.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.113,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes42c32.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5842049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes53c30.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0630652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x396b…1759backed Yes70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.951729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-52.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked No49c29.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.249445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d8…52d5backed No44c27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.128229.3%24 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ec…7ef0backed No56c26.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521560%9 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9c1…be67backed No54c25.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.723488.2%30 W · 4 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick67cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1516…e90cbacked No47c24.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7786362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes51c20.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.463644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No50c20.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.124736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e06…e02cbacked No79c18.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No62c18.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0357264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.