Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5c68f4b06de7c9b60a90e3e816168907a1b125e09dcdee580517b2c4be83d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 451.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 246.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 244.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 21c | 227$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.8 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 199.28$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 146.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 140.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 135.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 74c | 125.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 123.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 116.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 70c | 115.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 104.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 98.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 22c | 92.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 31c | 86.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 75.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 72c | 73.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 21c | 68.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 63.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 60.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 54c | 55.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked No | 41c | 49.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 43.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 42.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 34.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 35c | 29.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed Yes | 51c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 49c | 21.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 71c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.