IPO · resolved market
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120f946dcb7e38f206622e5f4cf1d781fe36150c8256a8f31a8bbf7d78555b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 30c | 5,807$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.33 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…8b8bbacked No | 70c | 5,621$3,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 975.04$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.92 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 24c | 806.88$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 16c | 664.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 24c | 608.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 400$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +592.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 75c | 400$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 68c | 308$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 25c | 290.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 230$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 144.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 32c | 107.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.52per pick | 39cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 66c | 63.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -92%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…5632backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…36d4backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0992…b890backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…acdcbacked Yes | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…0335backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Fervo Energy not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be at least $10.0B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $5.5B and $7.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $8.5B and $10.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.