IPO · resolved market
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be at least $10.0B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3e9f2bdf70a305cd029f0550f96ab33bfdc2c65d9b84f08976d5fb28da0ff07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 11c | 3,064$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,736.71 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 41c | 1,447$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.19 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.6 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.4 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…4adbbacked No | 62c | 240$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…6306backed Yes | 41c | 48.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423e…a3a6backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe2…952cbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…e0cbbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be at least $10.0B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Fervo Energy not IPO before July 2026?No won
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $5.5B and $7.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $8.5B and $10.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.