AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd87f2f83f286d6fa2bee0ab9952f77cae03cea3656d419c7e75a9ae31949991e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $478,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $422,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4834…1bfabacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…a799backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb70…be84backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 13c | 39,732$5,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.64 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 6c | 15,802$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.41 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 21c | 13,186$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,731.86 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 26c | 12,922$3,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301.12 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 4c | 12,490$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.53 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,887$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4213…67f5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 8,412$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 7,347$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 40c | 6,157$2,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.7 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 5,535$3,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.62 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…dd39backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 2,885$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,819$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e6…9139backed Yes | 4c | 2,660$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…f295backed Yes | 65c | 2,409$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 3c | 1,906$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…678ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,522$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,285$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 1,210$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 846.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 645.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 562.71$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 528.29$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…8747backed Yes | 18c | 525.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc180…da11backed Yes | 4c | 465.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 6c | 432.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 400.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…0b81backed Yes | 53c | 348.8$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 5c | 284.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed Yes | 7c | 278.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 5c | 245.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 33c | 170$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 13c | 144.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 135.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes | 20c | 119$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 19c | 116.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 104.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 99.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 75c | 79.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e3…ee5dbacked Yes | 39c | 77.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 80c | 37.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44c3…ee58backed No | 70c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.