TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5d5…6caabacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No25c11,593$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.258815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No2c10,051$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.17032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed No16c9,278$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.182722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked No19c9,261$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.325016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6602…089fbacked No2c8,792$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.43250%0 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c7,342$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.686291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No5c5,101$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.282429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No10c4,086$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.952330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No8c3,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.495026%13 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick17cpaid+44.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c2,549$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.551,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed No1c2,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c2,269$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.9319432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No6c2,234$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.455420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes70c2,152$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e6…9139backed No3c2,109$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.881315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No11c2,104$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.423925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No46c1,996$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.781921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c8…c658backed No8c1,947$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.226010%6 W · 54 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c1,789$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.442560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c1,757$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0217824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No5c1,751$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.533042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No19c1,707$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.253647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No4c1,574$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.576145.9%28 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed No8c1,559$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a07…1d4dbacked Yes48c1,180$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No4c1,084$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.114157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No17c984.91$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1668942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No4c838.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.432977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da6…9ac4backed No3c789.48$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No10c673.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.946439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7806…ae3fbacked No6c664.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c598.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.892792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5753…fa31backed No6c585.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No17c560.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.55843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No41c553.74$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.273834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No2c531.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4422019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No4c509.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No3c433.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ea…6a44backed No6c409$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No5c361.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.757041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No6c357.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed Yes43c348$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.361353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No5c345$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.258433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3551…b02cbacked No6c338.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No6c331.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.638741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked No4c331.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No16c319$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.851838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Yes51c316.32$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.883100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No5c310$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.171010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No9c306.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.643243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4352…c794backed No11c262.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.291513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c256.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2740712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef1f…5868backed Yes38c225$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.61225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8a…8730backed Yes38c225$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.61323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes38c225$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.61435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No13c222.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8819818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No12c199.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e34…9434backed Yes49c184.04$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.17862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed No18c158.66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.313514.3%5 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No11c151.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.397538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked No7c148$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-72.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c136.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7747938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee9…f7acbacked No19c135.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes78c125.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.531163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No11c116$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.277448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No19c108.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5189317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No29c106.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.032536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes70c105.74$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.392875%21 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No15c101.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.094736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes50c101$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.591668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No24c100.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5719120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No18c97.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.143622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…b53dbacked Yes57c96.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9114…3568backed Yes79c95.35$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No21c90$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.998547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked No17c88.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153713.5%5 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes40c87.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.937035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No15c80.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.227943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No40c75.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbc4…5f8abacked No28c43.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e3…ee5dbacked Yes75c39.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffee…c768backed Yes79c37.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.74475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c37.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2411124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes80c37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.514281%115 W · 27 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26a9…c573backed Yes72c33.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.547100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ba8…2bdfbacked Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.244100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+149.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No50c23.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1004…58ecbacked Yes66c16.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-61.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85f…0fe1backed Yes75c13.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.