Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f8acf282f80bdb7c36f4f6fc3f4717216ae80588012d58e54cd3ffc52d1746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 39c | 4,599$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.27 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 40c | 1,496$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.1 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 16c | 1,219$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked Yes | 14c | 675$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 14c | 623.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 582$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed Yes | 17c | 525$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 59c | 506.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 370.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 43c | 355.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 225$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…c072backed Yes | 53c | 200.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 200.22$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 44c | 177.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 56c | 89.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 50c | 85.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed Yes | 56c | 80.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 43c | 74.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed Yes | 46c | 60.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed No | 41c | 48.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 56c | 44.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 47c | 29.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked No | 50c | 28.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…a5a9backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5846…1057backed No | 55c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.