Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5203bba651a7bf8b072ce308a69e8e06d918258fdfde71081623752be2db7033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed Yes | 74c | 957.81$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.81 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 40c | 641.8$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.09 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 35c | 460$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 55c | 380.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 49c | 351.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 39c | 341.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 41c | 329.13$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.44 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 72c | 289.95$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.89 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 225$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 217.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb96…9545backed Yes | 14c | 215.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.75 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 213.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 8c | 203$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 180$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 173.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…d5b7backed No | 48c | 170.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 127.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 45c | 124.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 65c | 108$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…70d9backed No | 63c | 84.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae20…f1cfbacked Yes | 60c | 82.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked No | 43c | 78.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 57c | 76.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…e141backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed No | 72c | 41.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 61c | 41.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 61c | 38.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 37.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked Yes | 47c | 37.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 34c | 37.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 48c | 35.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…7424backed Yes | 62c | 34.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 39c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 60c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 30.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 29.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 38c | 27.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 70c | 25.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…215cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 76c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.