TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,243 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6435…cbc8backed No3c2,973$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed No2c2,864$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes67c2,120$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.657238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa48e…d8e9backed No40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9765…436bbacked No3c1,741$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed Yes64c1,607$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x750d…c7f2backed No30c1,485$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.531050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcecd…c518backed No29c1,455$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.79333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked No20c1,295$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.452737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed No4c1,261$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.242626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No15c1,014$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.44714.9%7 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65d7…19c4backed Yes60c779.58$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.83666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No14c665.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.115633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No34c638.17$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.545448.1%26 W · 28 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No6c635.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.144157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No38c610$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7600…7347backed No3c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c568$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.911,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No5c510$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.61388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No40c469.61$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.764351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd53…e541backed No3c455$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed No30c414.29$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes68c402$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.791450%7 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked No34c383.51$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No7c380.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6619818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No28c380.2$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed Yes70c361.17$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.18837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No17c355$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.72133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e9f…c20dbacked No3c330$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No36c329.36$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c313.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.593042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No11c272$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9216418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes78c263$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2615047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes24c259.39$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.144045%18 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…a1ecbacked No41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263414.7%5 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1748…5e9ebacked No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No42c199.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.914423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x673a…e805backed No26c191.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes66c159.96$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.051040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes32c150$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0816…377abacked Yes63c147.19$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.971020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-70.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x29b6…302fbacked No20c145.23$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8705…8354backed Yes71c140$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes65c133.1$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.164551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed No40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.86030%18 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes39c118.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7610561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb916…906fbacked No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70cd…4694backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90a3…23ccbacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9403…0fd3backed No35c99.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed No33c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes56c99.86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.479040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes57c90.39$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed No34c89.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+177.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a0d…c27bbacked No22c86.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…7389backed No38c74.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes57c68.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.351838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a1d…2d6fbacked No39c65.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6f…b684backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes65c54.94$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2325632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a25…6d20backed Yes74c54.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.321266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x561b…9b6cbacked No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7570…ffc0backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b8…cb3cbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda08…0e21backed No31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+158.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9781…8dcabacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7615…e395backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes35c42.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.857035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fdf…336cbacked No27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+57.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc58c…0a81backed Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+70.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5e…ff63backed No41c39.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes43c36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.683348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f59…e61dbacked No70c33.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ab4…2391backed No39c33.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes64c28.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.314281%115 W · 27 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x268e…dfaebacked Yes59c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes66c20.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7389317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0514…f8c6backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…2688backed Yes76c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.74580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+59.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes74c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1811124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8ee0…adfdbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.