AI · resolved market
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaa0bfa637462898c8f2c18ad0d97f982cb7aff0af9ccafb7e8767c726e5c352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed No | 3c | 2,973$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 2c | 2,864$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 67c | 2,120$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.65 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked No | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…d8e9backed No | 40c | 1,750$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…436bbacked No | 3c | 1,741$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…04e7backed Yes | 64c | 1,607$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 30c | 1,485$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed No | 29c | 1,455$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 20c | 1,295$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 4c | 1,261$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 15c | 1,014$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 60c | 779.58$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 14c | 665.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 34c | 638.17$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.54 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 635.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 38c | 610$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed No | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 568$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 5c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 40c | 469.61$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd53…e541backed No | 3c | 455$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed No | 30c | 414.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 68c | 402$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 34c | 383.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 380.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 380.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 70c | 361.17$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 17c | 355$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…c20dbacked No | 3c | 330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 36c | 329.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 313.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 11c | 272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 78c | 263$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 24c | 259.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…a1ecbacked No | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…5e9ebacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 42c | 199.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…e805backed No | 26c | 191.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 66c | 159.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0816…377abacked Yes | 63c | 147.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked No | 20c | 145.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 65c | 133.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 39c | 118.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…906fbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cd…4694backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a3…23ccbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…0fd3backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 56c | 99.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 57c | 90.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed No | 34c | 89.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…c27bbacked No | 22c | 86.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…7389backed No | 38c | 74.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 57c | 68.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…2d6fbacked No | 39c | 65.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6f…b684backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 65c | 54.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed Yes | 74c | 54.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7570…ffc0backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…cb3cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…8dcabacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…e395backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…0a81backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed No | 41c | 39.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f59…e61dbacked No | 70c | 33.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…2391backed No | 39c | 33.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 64c | 28.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…dfaebacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…2688backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee0…adfdbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?this page
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Yes won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 260,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.