AI · resolved market
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fd7ecd43f2181f5aa40d29ce9c255c09ac4dbf02bd86488f72f87fcbae784d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 18c | 5,266$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,310.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 11c | 3,898$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 11c | 2,169$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 15c | 2,163$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.53 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 60c | 1,934$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.77 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed No | 22c | 1,823$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 8c | 1,653$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 12c | 1,505$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 78c | 1,246$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 79c | 944.1$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…8895backed Yes | 78c | 895.45$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 51c | 874.4$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 744.95$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.37 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 730.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 3c | 699.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 26c | 641.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.69 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Yes | 80c | 596.7$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 12c | 590$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 584$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 499.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 21c | 497.37$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…6528backed No | 78c | 490.82$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 73c | 475.18$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 67c | 416$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 19c | 343.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 68c | 316.23$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 40c | 315.49$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.59 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…39efbacked Yes | 78c | 310$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 281.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed No | 17c | 252$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7555backed No | 79c | 240$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…3d87backed No | 76c | 220.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…3b40backed No | 79c | 220$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 22c | 203.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 198.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked No | 33c | 156$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 80c | 131.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…11abbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…6977backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed Yes | 67c | 116$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…5c41backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 26cpaid | +319.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 19c | 84.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…984ebacked Yes | 23c | 72.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +293.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 71.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +350.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed No | 72c | 69.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…3ceabacked Yes | 38c | 64.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…83d8backed Yes | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…2103backed Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +418.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…ede5backed Yes | 80c | 56.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 79c | 54.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 42c | 48.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…ff33backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1165…f10cbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…2391backed Yes | 36c | 33.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 79c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…d4aebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…6deebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19b…7baabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?this page
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Yes won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 260,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.