AI · resolved market
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x087ff7b995cc5bb2314e216ff6bf322751523a6d3760af129c3561079d52b515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4d4…c3f9backed Yes | 56c | 19,011$10,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,701.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 66c | 8,600$5,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,889.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 36c | 7,948$2,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 56c | 7,090$3,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 55c | 6,000$3,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 65c | 5,009$3,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.27 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 32c | 4,036$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 13c | 3,425$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.29 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 45c | 3,394$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 50c | 3,321$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 51c | 3,181$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.56 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 53c | 3,129$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed No | 48c | 3,047$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…22cbbacked Yes | 66c | 2,641$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 16c | 2,114$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…90d5backed No | 11c | 1,998$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +365.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 46c | 1,911$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 1,834$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.77 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 1,760$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.86 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked No | 63c | 1,733$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 68c | 1,705$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.09 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13be…4d31backed Yes | 29c | 1,601$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…0bffbacked Yes | 27c | 1,470$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 66c | 1,430$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17fb…d0a3backed No | 14c | 1,396$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +590.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…c7acbacked No | 78c | 1,374$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 75c | 1,341$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 67c | 1,317$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…3d87backed Yes | 58c | 1,316$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…15c0backed Yes | 78c | 1,299$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 60c | 1,238$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.36 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…6910backed No | 66c | 1,216$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 60c | 1,101$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,005$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 6c | 950$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…173abacked Yes | 50c | 883.34$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 24c | 818$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…a64fbacked Yes | 47c | 764.4$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d8b…1fb1backed No | 75c | 694.65$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed Yes | 21c | 694.48$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 20c | 652.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…f8d2backed Yes | 40c | 642.12$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b2…95ffbacked No | 40c | 636.34$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 58c | 615.17$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed No | 42c | 574.12$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked No | 69c | 564.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 60c | 546.14$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.87 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 541.14$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.08 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…036bbacked No | 37c | 540.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470c…2af9backed Yes | 38c | 526.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 66c | 496.75$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.32 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 19c | 475.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…0f32backed No | 54c | 447.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 68c | 438.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…7347backed No | 59c | 437.15$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…0115backed No | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 69c | 413.73$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…436bbacked No | 63c | 393.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 15c | 380.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 26c | 355.58$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 54c | 348.52$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87eb…7976backed No | 67c | 345.2$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 37c | 328.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 72c | 327.58$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a74…ae2bbacked Yes | 31c | 326.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 78c | 304.77$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…3637backed Yes | 43c | 301.49$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 45c | 274.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 22c | 258$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 25c | 240$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 25c | 240$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 24c | 233.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…c50bbacked No | 28c | 218.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 52c | 217.27$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 35c | 214.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 211$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…a1edbacked No | 28c | 208.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked No | 43c | 207$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…cf06backed Yes | 27c | 205.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 43c | 203.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 48c | 202.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…7306backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…5e9ebacked No | 45c | 200$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…9563backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…afd2backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…f5cbbacked Yes | 55c | 199.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 20c | 197.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 26c | 180$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.35 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed No | 70c | 180$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 56c | 177.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?this page
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Yes won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Yes won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 255,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
- Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 260,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.