TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x750d…c7f2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.48
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$332.8
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group H?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.97
Will Argentina finish 2nd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.96
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group J?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.2%+$251.58
Will Spain finish 2nd place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$100.35
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$31.7
Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.75
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will France win the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$72
Will Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+87.1%+$23.28
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.5
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.79
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.99
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+111.4%+$52.7
Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$37.3
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.62
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$140
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.59
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.97
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$197.21
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$98
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$158.61
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$440.53
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.05
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+605%+$491.28
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$78.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$980Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+93.9%+$920
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed Gold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+78.6%+$131.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.24
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$34.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.