AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc053975fe38f79eb6a3a677d3fe32ec67a15d5bdcc9321f845914545ce44479c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 19c | 4,480$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.34 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 57c | 2,714$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.92 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…df15backed Yes | 1c | 1,915$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 2c | 1,905$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 30c | 1,643$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 2c | 1,620$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 61c | 1,462$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.02 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,387$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…f90ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,196$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 65c | 1,000$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.8 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 72c | 983.76$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 47c | 848.25$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…a30ebacked Yes | 48c | 650$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 554.87$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 54c | 500$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.2 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked No | 67c | 446.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 30c | 396$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…9f9cbacked Yes | 35c | 320$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 71c | 275.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ef…b1f4backed Yes | 30c | 270$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…d6e7backed No | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 30c | 233.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 142.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed Yes | 27c | 129.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…060cbacked Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed Yes | 32c | 100.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151a…0ecebacked No | 68c | 100.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77c…bfffbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…af7cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…31f7backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 90.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 56c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 33c | 74.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 71.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 44c | 69.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 26c | 65.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…4bb0backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 24c | 56.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…024cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…a246backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…9e91backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 68c | 47.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…e296backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…7d94backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…6fbdbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?this page
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.