AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd7deaf6c94cbcdbe1b0e4289c3c6a1482e743759b346fef42df38330e1a52c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 13c | 12,049$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.93 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 16c | 4,100$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.83 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed No | 8c | 3,636$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.07 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 0c | 3,520$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x923b…e08abacked Yes | 69c | 2,471$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 2c | 2,280$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 24c | 2,216$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.84 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 9c | 2,103$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,077$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 61c | 1,990$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.21 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 66c | 1,913$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 34c | 1,225$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 17c | 1,061$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.24 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 948$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…d308backed Yes | 74c | 920$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 27c | 846.25$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 76c | 779.01$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.42 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 67c | 700$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…416dbacked Yes | 74c | 663.94$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 50c | 531$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.38 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 511.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 461.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…7782backed Yes | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea0…303cbacked Yes | 64c | 330.36$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 16c | 317.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 57c | 302.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…a73fbacked Yes | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 9c | 267.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 73c | 245.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 56c | 220$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 11c | 214$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1000…b7b4backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…6edfbacked Yes | 56c | 197.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 19c | 183$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…0237backed Yes | 79c | 181.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 79c | 181.23$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 77c | 177.18$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed No | 30c | 167.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 24c | 164.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…bd57backed No | 29c | 157.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 150.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x151a…0ecebacked Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 18c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 79c | 148$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 133.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked Yes | 71c | 131.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 15c | 130.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 62c | 110.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes | 74c | 104.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked No | 11c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 18c | 94.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed No | 27c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…6ab1backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17f…fe84backed No | 38c | 71.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 36c | 68.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…499abacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…abe0backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 60c | 55.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 53.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f5…4f4dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…31dbbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 34c | 47.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…bacdbacked Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c93…39afbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…7877backed No | 33c | 39.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 36c | 35.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked No | 41c | 33.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 71c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked Yes | 61c | 27.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 41c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…fe32backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 20.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…8853backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e5…4239backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?this page
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.