AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5999d97638fa838e508e2f527f224c7cf99de664c4badf757633e78c0cb111b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 29,222$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed No | 77c | 8,608$6,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,532$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 64c | 5,487$3,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.07 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,249$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 3,816$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.22 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…74fcbacked Yes | 43c | 3,200$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 10c | 3,129$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.62 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,757$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.82 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 54c | 2,411$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.91 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…b632backed Yes | 3c | 2,361$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 24c | 2,235$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.68 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,006$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 53c | 2,000$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.18 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…f90ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,400$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,347$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 47c | 1,054$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 38c | 861.99$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.54 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 19c | 716.95$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 69c | 701.29$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 54c | 696.94$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 57c | 558.1$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.82 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 463$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 41c | 461.65$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.2 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…12dabacked Yes | 43c | 460.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 46c | 420$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 48c | 405.9$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.42 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed No | 49c | 383.11$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 303.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 73c | 275.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 80c | 250.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 249.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…9f9cbacked Yes | 62c | 242.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 68c | 201.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 200.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…b757backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 52c | 180$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 41c | 136.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 129.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 43c | 128.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 52c | 109.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…1323backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 46c | 70.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…e85cbacked Yes | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 74c | 60.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x007c…6d5dbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 68c | 58.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 37c | 53.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x794d…1c5dbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…c074backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…b9f0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked No | 63c | 47.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 36c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…dc16backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…38bebacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…6fe1backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…7877backed No | 59c | 38.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb17f…fe84backed No | 38c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 47c | 28.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked No | 63c | 22.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…0fd3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…6fbdbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…6b38backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…67c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?this page
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.