AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5444d004368f72aa8e64d1774399c8bd2606652eecb950872a5bd0072e2fb1ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 5c | 9,504$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.53 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 8c | 8,697$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.83 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 22c | 6,000$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.75 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 66c | 5,100$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.72 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 3,675$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.77 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,166$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 78c | 2,631$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.43 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,976$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 1,583$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.54 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…31a3backed No | 1c | 1,416$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,317$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 5c | 1,288$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 3c | 1,230$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab49…34e6backed No | 1c | 1,143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed No | 8c | 1,088$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 49c | 1,043$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.28 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 35c | 1,016$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.6 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 51c | 939.2$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 67c | 740.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 700.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Yes | 64c | 700$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 9c | 665.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 76c | 625$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 22c | 559.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 4c | 511.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…f90ebacked Yes | 64c | 450$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…146ebacked No | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 33c | 447.76$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 34c | 409.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 8c | 374.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 59c | 361.72$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 37c | 340.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 53c | 309.38$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked No | 33c | 295.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 24c | 274.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 24c | 260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 7c | 226.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 49c | 206.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…7782backed Yes | 74c | 202$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77c…bfffbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 72c | 194.21$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 8c | 181.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 171.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…a606backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…0237backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3841…70cabacked Yes | 63c | 149$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed No | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 141.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…b757backed No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…00bcbacked No | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 53c | 116$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 34c | 114.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…9f9cbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…6583backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 92.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9592backed Yes | 65c | 91.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 38c | 79.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…be97backed Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…c074backed No | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…82c1backed Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bf…5b94backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 55.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…e296backed Yes | 75c | 54.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6437…737abacked No | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d1b2backed Yes | 77c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0d3ebacked No | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…aa62backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d0…5009backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…d010backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79b…1dc6backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…76eebacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?this page
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No won
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.