Movies · resolved market
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2666174d59b0066cf45a0cb06391f7830ac01b97f17c0ff27263f6db0d4f738d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x750d…c7f2backed Yes | 15c | 5,064$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed Yes | 16c | 4,966$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…8ecebacked Yes | 14c | 1,381$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,286$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.33 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 25c | 1,258$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…37b3backed Yes | 15c | 890.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 11c | 774.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…660dbacked Yes | 16c | 715.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…030abacked Yes | 10c | 602.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 461.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 6c | 452.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…c0a9backed Yes | 16c | 437.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 14c | 431.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…7744backed Yes | 24c | 430.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 17c | 425.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…5addbacked Yes | 10c | 384.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 15c | 331.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…2553backed Yes | 16c | 319.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…5864backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 249.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 19c | 248.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 14c | 243$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 227.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 89 | 4.5%4 W · 85 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 20c | 226.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 210.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…2758backed No | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +172%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 16c | 200.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 21c | 183.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 20c | 175.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 169.27$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 16c | 157.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 134.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0be…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 112.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Yes | 32c | 111.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…a439backed Yes | 14c | 107.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…9dd4backed Yes | 9c | 106.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…501fbacked Yes | 25c | 100.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 100.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9edb…f6f3backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked No | 79c | 99.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…f7efbacked Yes | 16c | 98.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 26c | 96.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 65c | 85.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 25c | 79.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…67ccbacked Yes | 14c | 72.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d11…0561backed Yes | 17c | 68.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed Yes | 48c | 48.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 25c | 45.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…1346backed No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae6a…80bdbacked Yes | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…2e76backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b3…c439backed Yes | 48c | 36.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe264…60a4backed Yes | 47c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…3908backed Yes | 40c | 34.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05e…9944backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 41c | 28.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3a5backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a81ebacked Yes | 47c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…d719backed No | 67c | 16.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?this page
- Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3?No won
- Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
- Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.